It's late and I've been digging for a set of number projections for global population growth over the next 50 years, and what the estimated industrial output must be to sustain the projected population, and further, what the increase in technological advancements must be just to maintain our current level of environmental impact. I can't find the numbers. I will find them later and put them up at another time. If memory serves me right, it goes something like this... Over the next few decades, industrial output will have to increase 10-fold in order to sustain a projected global population of 10+ billion. At that level of industrial output, our advances in technology must increase 20-fold in order to maintain the current level of environmental impact; that increase doesn't even begin to reduce our environmental footprint from current levels.
In a nutshell, what these projections tell us is that if there is going to be any hope of a sustainable future on this Earth, advanced technology research must be an international policy priority, now. As investors, what these numbers also tell us, is that the biotech industry, the nanotech industry, and other frontier technology industries, will be the areas that you want to have some skin in the game. In decades past, the railroads were the prime drivers of investing returns, then it was autos, later computers, and next the Internet. In this century, it will be biotech, nanotech, and who knows what other advancements.
Earlier, I confessed of my ignorance when it comes to advanced technologies, and for that reason, I admitted that in the past I have tended to steer clear of such investments. But, I also stated that these industries will be the key drivers of growth for the U.S. economy in the coming years. For that reason, despite my lack of understanding of these markets, I continue to challenge myself to gain a better grasp of the implications of these critical technologies, and, which companies present compelling investment opportunities. There is a list of such companies I am researching, but because of the risks involved in each, I am going to refrain from sharing their names, at least for the foreseeable future.
One of the unique attributes of humanity is our God-given ability to create. At no other time will this power be put on greater display than the one we are entering. In biotech, for example, we are identifying technologies that have the potential to eradicate disease. In nanotech, we are researching materials that have the potential to be lighter than balsa wood and stronger than steel. The possibilities are literally as endless as our imagination.
The possibilities will also present significant ethical questions that we will have to wrestle with as a society. For instance, one area of the biotech industry may be on the verge of discoveries that will dramatically increase existing life expectancies -- for those that will be able to afford it. Such advancements, if they are not distributed in an equitable fashion, will lead to further differentiation in economic classes where the rich live longer and grow wealthier, and the poor lag further behind.
The ethical dimensions these advancements present, is another area that I will be focusing my attention on in the coming years.
Peace
Jeremy